Thyroid cancer
Tier: Burden tier · Matched burden cause: Thyroid cancer (GBD cause 480), GBD 2023 (DALYs primary).
Publication share of the 14-area pool
Pool share (%) by five-year period. Pool totals: 1995–1999 26,544, 2000–2004 36,611, 2005–2009 50,051, 2010–2014 65,755, 2015–2019 85,380, 2020–2024 128,117.
| Period | 1995–1999 | 2000–2004 | 2005–2009 | 2010–2014 | 2015–2019 | 2020–2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Publications | 2,675 | 3,643 | 5,110 | 7,803 | 11,003 | 16,288 |
| Share of pool (%) | 10.08% | 9.95% | 10.21% | 11.87% | 12.89% | 12.71% |
First-to-last share change: +26.1% (relative). Dynamics label: Unclassified.
Attention–burden ratio (ABR)
log2 ABR by period (dashed line = parity, ABR 1). Last period pairs publications 2020–24 with burden 2020–23 (see Methods).
| Period | 1995–1999 | 2000–2004 | 2005–2009 | 2010–2014 | 2015–2019 | 2020–2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| log2 ABR | +3.05 | +3.08 | +3.18 | +3.30 | +3.36 | +3.24 |
| ABR | 8.31 | 8.43 | 9.06 | 9.85 | 10.25 | 9.45 |
| Publication share of 7-cause pool (%) | 16.6% | 16.8% | 18.3% | 19.9% | 20.9% | 19.7% |
| DALY share of 7-cause pool (%) | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% |
Burden–research centroid distance
Great-circle distance (km) between the DALY-weighted burden centroid and the first-author research centroid (arithmetic mean centres; see Methods).
| Period | 1995–1999 | 2000–2004 | 2005–2009 | 2010–2014 | 2015–2019 | 2020–2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distance (km) | 6,975 | 7,109 | 7,227 | 5,378 | 1,674 | 1,756 |
First-to-last change: -74.8% (6,975 → 1,756 km). Last-period distances remain large in absolute terms for every cause.
The final step rose slightly (1,674 → 1,756 km, +82 km) after a steep fall.
First-author geography
LMIC share of parsed first-author records: 5.4% → 49.4% (this area; pooled across all 14 areas: 7.9% → 39.8%). Share of first authors located in this cause's ten highest-DALY countries: 50.4% → 58.1%.
Decoupling typology
| Signal | Value | Direction (main thresholds) |
|---|---|---|
| S — relative change in pool publication share | +26.1% | up |
| B — relative change in DALY share of the 7-cause pool | +4.8% | stable |
| A — change in log2 ABR | +0.19 | stable |
| Threshold set | Assigned type |
|---|---|
| Low (±15% / ±0.3) | Unclassified |
| Main (±25% / ±0.5) | Unclassified |
| High (±35% / ±0.7) | Constant |
This cause matches no rule under the main thresholds and is reported as unclassified; it is not forced into a type. Its behaviour under the other threshold sets is shown above.
Annualised absolute DALYs for this cause changed +76.5% between the first and last periods. B is a share: a falling B means relative dilution inside the pool, never an absolute decline.
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